Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $36,258$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(3.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,873.5}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 41.5)}}\) (asimptote \(34,873.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,096$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(76.9 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,046.5}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 58.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,046.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,605$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $347,398$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(4.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,063,043.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 77.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,063,043.4\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $22,013$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(472 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,634.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 60.9)}}\) (asimptote \(39,634.7\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $182,798$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $115,754$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(2.24 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{158,203.8}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 61.1)}}\) (asimptote \(158,203.8\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,373$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(86.8 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,765.5}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 55.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,765.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $64,466$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $65,393$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(842 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $673$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(27.8 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,070.6}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 109.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,070.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $38,174$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,915$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(60.6 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,661.9}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 76.7)}}\) (asimptote \(18,661.9\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $240$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(9.94 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{951.7}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 71.6)}}\) (asimptote \(951.7\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,066$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $20,177$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(621 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53,856.5}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 77.5)}}\) (asimptote \(53,856.5\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $705$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(54.5 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{897.0}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 44.9)}}\) (asimptote \(897.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,754$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $11,353$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(600 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,575.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 100.1)}}\) (asimptote \(54,575.6\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $445$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(45 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{534.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 43.0)}}\) (asimptote \(534.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,378$ on 2020-05-23
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $764$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(222 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{730.4}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 23.7)}}\) (asimptote \(730.4\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $22$ on 2020-05-23
Best fit exponential: \(5.37 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21.1}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 22.7)}}\) (asimptote \(21.1\))
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $126$ on 2020-05-23
